The Last Post on the Bugle

General election polls, at this point, are not to be trusted for a whole lot of reasons. Just take into consideration the differences in turn-out between the democratic and republican contests, and it becomes clear that John McCain’s advantage in match-ups with Barack and Hills is not to be taken seriously.

A lot of voters I know, are so empassioned by Barack Obama that they proclaim that they wouldn’t vote for Hillary if she won the nomination, and I’m sure some of the Hillary-drones feel the same way. Because, a lot of this is hot air, and many of these voters will turn out for whichever democratic nominee, the polls are currently innaccurate.

At the same time, I think that Hillary-enthusiasts are more likely to be swayed to vote for Obama than vice versa. This has much to do with the different conduct of the two campaigns, Obama supporters (especially African Americans) are more likely to leave this primary season with a general sense of disillusionment if their candidate of choice isn’t the nominee.

Hillary could beat McCain, Barack Obama will.

Barack’s current platform translates easier into a platform for the General Election than Hillary’s. After all, “experience” is an altogether unsuitable mantra, when running against the oldest presidential candidate in American history. “Change” seems much more apt.

McCain is closely associated with the surge, John Edwards cleverly branded it the McCain doctrine. Since then, McCain has been at his most hawkish, embracing another 100 years of American occupation in the country. While this may appeal to some republicans, it is ultimately a gamble. McCain’s credibility is closely aligned with the stability of the most volatile region in the world.

The surge may have improved the conditions in Iraq superficially, but violence is still rampant, Baghdad is still the most dangerous city in the world, and political reconciliation is as unlikely as ever. Many Americans see just enough betterment in Iraq for it to no longer be their primary concern.

If this is success, then, besides being the product of incredibly low expectations, it is also immensely fragile. As soon as this lull discontinues, McCain’s “100 years in Iraq” will be immensely unpopular, and his stance will reemerge as a liability. Who better to exploit that than Barack Obama, the anti-war candidate? On Iraq, similarly to many veterans of the war, Hillary has no leg to stand on. Hillary has been vague, at best, about her withdrawl plans. She has mentioned withdrawing within 6 months of her presidency, but only “if it’s reasonable to do so.” Similarly, McCain wants to withdraw when he thinks its reasonable to do so, and he is thinking along the lines of 100 years. After all, that’s how long he’s been fighting his personal battles.

This leads us to another one of McCain’s central problems; he tends to get very, very angry. Americans surely want a tough president, but it is unlikely they want an unpredictable one, who succumbs to his temper so easily. Obama, on the other hand, has shown himself to be extremely cool. Mrs. Clinton has thrown some scathing jabs at the man while they were on stage together, and he has remained remarkably calm, without seeming weak in the slightest. Under attack, Obama tends to stir, while McCain tends to boil. Another clear contrast that would seem to work in Obama’s favour.

Obama makes McCain look ancient; a problem in itself for a candidate who is constantly being asked whether he is “too old.” As far as oratory goes, Obama is vastly superior to McCain, their Super Tuesday victory speeches couldn’t be more different in quality.

To sum up, which match-up could possibly present more obvious, advantageous contrasts than this one? Obama vs. McCain, would be old vs. young, effortless vs. tortured (literally), hopeful vs. bitter, anti-war vs. pro-war; to fall back on a stereotypical, slightly inaccurate historical comparison, it’ll be JFK vs. Nixon all over again. Hillary has none of these advantages. Regardless of what the polls say now, I can’t see McCain doing very well if he goes head-to-head with Obama on the “Electromechanical television set” (McCain).